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Ebay bullish about business future

SAN JOSE, Calif. — Ebay is projecting its revenue will grow by 50% over the next three years as it develops successful strategies to maintain itself as a commerce leader.

In a company-held meeting for the financial community, Ebay said it intends to drive strong continued growth in its core Marketplaces, PayPal and GSI Commerce businesses. At the same time, the company is focused on leveraging its global mobile commerce leadership and other commerce technologies to enable new experiences for consumers and retailers.

"Led by mobile, a commerce revolution is under way," said Ebay Inc. President and CEO John Donahoe. "Technology is creating a new web-enabled retail interface, a new seamless, multiscreen commerce experience that connects consumers anytime, anywhere. This will expand shopping beyond conventional store environments and e-commerce sites. How we shop is being transformed, and Ebay Inc. intends to be a leader in this new commerce world."

In 2015, the company expects to enable $300 billion of global commerce, compared to $175 billion in 2012; the company expects revenues to grow over 50% to at least $21.5 billion in 2015, up from $14.1 billion in 2012. Enabled commerce volume is the total commerce and payment volume across all three business units, consisting of Marketplaces gross merchandise volume, PayPal merchant services net total payment volume and GSI global ecommerce merchandise sales.

Donahoe outlined three advantages that he believes will drive the company's growth:

  • An expanded addressable market. Ebay Inc. is no longer just an e-commerce company, but a global commerce leader, Donahoe said. That means the company now has growth opportunities across the estimated $10 trillion commerce market.

  • Mobile commerce leadership and innovation. eBay Inc.'s mobile innovation capabilities across all operating systems and devices are a competitive advantage, Donahoe said. In 2013, the company expects to generate $20 billion of mobile commerce and payments volume.

  • A strong portfolio of technology assets and capabilities. The company's core businesses and assets well position Ebay to capitalize and win in the new commerce environment.

Based on current business trends and expectations, the company provided the following financial outlook for 2013 to 2015:

  • Total company revenues are expected to reach $21.5 billion to $23.5 billion in 2015, up from $14.1 billion in 2012, led by continued innovation in the company's core businesses and the company's mobile commerce leadership.

  • The company expects compound annual non-GAAP earnings per share growth of 15% to 19% from 2012 to 2015.

  • Free cash flow is anticipated to be greater than $11 billion over the three-year period.

  • Marketplaces is expected to achieve revenues of $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion in 2015, representing a 14% compound annual growth rate at the midpoint.

  • PayPal is expected to achieve revenue growth of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion in 2015, representing a 22% compound annual growth rate at the midpoint.

  • GSI Commerce is expected to achieve revenue growth of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion in 2015, representing a 14% compound annual growth rate at the midpoint.