An increased risk of an emerging El Nino and a continuation of warmer than normal ocean waters in the Atlantic will produce warmer and wetter conditions along the East Coast along with an elevated tropical system risk. The total number of tropical systems will be reduced overall, but should a storm threaten the U.S., the East Coast would be at highest risk. Much cooler weather will be common across the Plains with increased rainfall east of the Rockies. The western third of the nation will trend much drier as the flow of monsoon moisture is cut off earlier than normal, while temperatures are generally similar to last year. Demand for autumn apparel will lag until the end of the month in the East when demand starts to pick up. A warm stretch of weather around mid-month in the East will extend the summer season in the South and provide a final opportunity for summer clearance farther north.
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