Holiday sales will increase between 3.5% and 4%, slower than last year’s 5.2% growth, as favorable economic tailwinds are offset by lingering negatives, according to an annual forecast by Deloitte’s Retail and Distribution Practice.
More than half of consumers plan to shop on Black Friday this year, although the number has decreased since last year. According to the Deloitte Pre-Thanksgiving Survey, 53% of 1,000 consumers polled will shop on Black Friday, compared to 63% in 2012.
Deloitte’s holiday sales forecast points to further signs that the economy is recovering. Holiday sales are expected to climb to between $963 and $967 billion, representing a 4% to 4.5% increase in November through January holiday sales (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) this year from last year’s season.
According to survey results by Deloitte, 94% of Americans indicate they will remain cautious and keep their spending for food, beverage and household goods at its current level, despite an improving economy.
In an era of increasingly complex global supply chains and product safety concerns, Deloitte and Decernis have formed a strategic alliance to provide compliance solutions to consumer product, food service, retail and distribution companies.
The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index to 3.53 in September from a reading of 3.27 the previous month, primarily due to a nearly 11% increase in home prices, which offset weakness in other areas of the index.
A retail industry expert presented research Monday at the National Retail Federation convention in New York City that showed shoppers will continue to spend more this year, spurred by a slowly improving job market and an uptick in income.
The Deloitte Spending Index, comprising four components -- tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices -- fell to 4.29%, from an upwardly revised gain of 4.71% a month ago.